Bangladesh’s hidden economy is running on empty
Households are no longer absorbing shocks. They are carrying them. Income matches expenditure. Debt replaces savings. Stability is no longer structural. It is improvised.
No margin remains.
Households above the poverty line but below the median per-capita monthly income, occupying a zone of non-poverty without stability.
Work exists. Income stability does not.
Urban expenditure inequality remains sharply above rural levels.
Bottom-decile households reporting skipped meals.
At least one full day without food in the last month.
No margin remains.
Income and expenditure now sit almost on top of each other. The household economy is still moving, but without spare room.
The surplus is nominal.
At national level, the monthly surplus is just BDT 70. Shock absorption is no longer structural.
Debt replaces savings.
Across lower deciles, liabilities overtake buffers. Resilience is no longer asset-backed.
Fragility becomes structural.
The problem is no longer episodic shock. It is permanent exposure concentrated at the bottom.
Income vs Expenditure
The national household surplus compresses to a margin smaller than routine volatility.
The system holds. Households do not.
Shock transmission is internal.
Health shocks, debt stress, food insecurity, and underemployment cluster and reinforce one another inside the household balance sheet.
Co-occurring Stress
Bottom-Decile Food Stress
Underemployment and Meal Skipping
Shock and Distress
Inequality defines exposure.
Exposure is unevenly distributed. Urban households face steeper expenditure inequality, while remittance-linked resilience is concentrated in upper deciles.
Urban vs Rural Gini
Remittance by Decile
Vulnerability Card
Protection fails under stress.
Governance burdens intensify for households already in distress, while safety-net targeting reveals both undercoverage and inclusion errors.
Reported Harassment
Targeting Mismatch
Access without leverage.
Digital access is widespread. Productive digital capability is not. Households can view the economy through screens, but remain unevenly positioned to participate in it.